Climate Change

"Climate change" refers to long-term changes in climate, while "global warming" refers explicitly to the rise in Earth's average temperature. Additionally, "weather" refers to short-term atmospheric conditions, whereas "climate" describes long-term patterns. Climate changes affect many aspects of our environment.

We are attempting to hold targets to control climate change that will keep it in a pattern in which our species has developed. However, our activities have resulted in significant environmental changes, especially in the last 200-250 years. The main human activities affecting Earth's energy balance, and hence the climate, are releasing greenhouse gases and aerosols and changing the reflectivity of surfaces. To avoid dangerous climate change, the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) focuses on two main things: the yearly average CO2 levels in the atmosphere and changes in radiative forcing.

The IPCC aims to keep CO2 levels at 350 parts per million (ppm) and radiative forcing at 1 watt per square meter (W/m²). As of 2024, we're at 423 ppm for CO2 and 2.91 in 2021 for the W/m² for radiative forcing, both higher than our safe targets, and these keep climbing. For example, 2023 saw the highest annual increase ever of CO2.

Keeping CO2 at 350 ppm would help us achieve less global warming than the 1.5°C target created in the Paris Agreement. Studies show that significant risks start to appear at just 1 °C of warming and worsen at 1.5°C. This figure, sometimes called a "target", or hope, is now impossible to achieve. 

What has caused these changes?

Since the mid-20th century, human activities, especially burning fossil fuels, have been the leading cause of climate change. Our activity, especially industrialisation using carbon-based fuels, is also driven by private-for-profit consumerism, which is now a predominant cultural facet of humanity around the planet. The increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere traps more heat and raises the Earth's average temperature. Natural processes, like ocean patterns (e.g., El Niño and La Niña) and volcanic activity, also affect the climate but are now overwhelmed by human impact. 

More than 98% of scientists ((Cook et al., 2013; Lynas, 2021; Oreskes, 2004) agree that climate change is caused by human industrial activity and the energy choices made to power this activity.

Human activities have also increased the concentration of aerosol particles that can affect the amount of reflected solar radiation to space either directly or indirectly by interacting with clouds, which has an overall cooling effect on the climate (Forster et al., 2023)

Significant attention has been paid to carbon dioxide. However, this is only one of the GHGs, as they include methane, ozone, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, and water vapour. Water vapour, which reacts to temperature changes, is referred to as 'feedback', because it amplifies the effect of forces that initially caused the warming. Scientists monitor climate change using observations from the ground, air, and space, along with computer models. They track key indicators such as:

  • Rising global temperatures

  • Increasing sea levels

  • Ice loss at the poles and in glaciers

  • More frequent and severe extreme weather events (hurricanes, heatwaves, wildfires, droughts, floods)

  • Changes in cloud and vegetation cover

Recently, the impact of sulphur as an aerosol has also been observed. Some aerosols, such as sulphur dioxide, have reflected sunlight and helped lower temperatures, but sulphur was also a significant pollutant and needed removal. Yuan's study (Yuan et al., 2024)  shows that reducing sulphur in ship fuel since 2020 will likely accelerate the planet's warming. This change is because sulphur dioxide (SO2) emission acts as a "brake" on global warming.

What is the impact of temperature increases?

If global temperatures keep rising and reach 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, people worldwide could simultaneously face multiple impacts of climate change. According to a NASA-led study (Park et al., 2023) that analysed the projected impacts of such warming to understand how different climate effects might combine. 

A 2-degree rise in global temperatures is a critical threshold above which dangerous and cascading impacts of human-generated climate change will occur. The researchers found that more than a quarter of the world's population could experience an additional month of severe heat stress each year compared to the middle of the 20th century (1950-1979). High temperatures and drought could combine dangerously in places like the Amazon, increasing wildfire risk. In the American West, extreme fire weather will likely be more intense and last longer. As Stefan Anderson writes, "A 3-degree Celsius warming scenario would unleash a cascade of catastrophic consequences, including the displacement of over a billion people, the collapse of ice caps leading to uncontrollable sea level rise, widespread biodiversity loss, frequent and devastating extreme weather events, and the endangerment of critical carbon sinks like the Amazon and Congo Basin rainforests."

However, Hansen argues that a higher degree of change will happen (Hansen, 2023). In its gap report (SEI, 2023), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) found that "governments plan to produce around  110% more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C, and 69% more than would be consistent with 2°C." In essence, it was found that the planet could experience nearly 3°C warming without 'relentless' emissions cuts.

What needs to be done and what MANA can do 

While the world urgently needs to cut back on the use of all fossil fuels, what can we do as average citizens? The UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for coal and gas companies to be banned from advertising their products worldwide. If we do not make significant changes in the next 18 months, there is little hope of maintaining global temperatures below a 2-degree Celsius increase. This increase will be disastrous for many people and create enormous suffering for ourselves and our children for centuries to come, as well as all other life on Earth. It is increasingly likely that climate change will cause extreme temperatures that will cause a lot of difficulty for people. 

MANA offers

MANA offers a supportive community and resilience-building through a range of 'days of mindfulness', weekly meditation groups, and training programs. MANA also offers science-based information and practical activities every individual can do to help change the poly-crisis we are now in. Cutting back on our individual and family emissions is one important step, and how to do this will be regularly featured in MANA’s Environment BLOG